.. is difficult, especially since there was crossover. The crossover happened largely because the new style was being introduced while most women were still wearing the old styles everywhere else. The style was definitely and intentionally being initiated by fashion designers in France.
1) Check the shape of the structure. The early ones were worn mostly 1870 – 1875. The 2nd 1883-1890 (although most had disappeared by 1886), but the 2nd ones had been introduced in Paris in 1880.
2) Check the hairstyle.
(Early 1880’s French cartoon: satirists were confused with the bustle eras, but mostly they just wondered.. “why…?”)